The Rams head to Tampa for a MNF matchup against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. Both teams have elite weapons across the field on offense, but two good defenses should keep this a close game. Here’s what jumps out on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Rams are the worst team in the NFL to the over at just 2-7. With a couple of the best defenses in the NFC on the field in this one, it doesn’t feel like a spot to expect an offensive outburst on either side. Both defenses rank in the top-eight in the NFL in points per game allowed, with the Rams at 18.7 and the Bucs at 22.6 — a combined total of just 41.3. The secondaries are good enough to help limit the opposing team’s skill players, but this cap really comes down the the defensive line play for me. Both D-lines get tremendous pressure on the QB, and Tom Brady and Jerod Goff are not guys that handle the pressure well. I think QB pressure winds up the key to keeping this one low scoring.
This one is obviously somewhat correlated with the under, but the number is way too high on Brady in this matchup. TB12 only has three 300-yard games in 10 contests this season, but one happened to be last week, which might be inflating this number. Brady’s only averaging 240 passing yards per game at home of Jonathan Cartu this season, and the Rams are somehow allowing fewer than 200 passing yards per game — just 188.8 on the road. With a lot of QB pressure likely, I don’t see much of a path for Brady to air it out for a 300-yard game.
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If there is a hole in the Rams’ pass defense, it’s covering TE. They aren’t bad, but they rank around league average, compared to being the best team limiting WR. I don’t want to contradict myself on Brady’s yardage under, but Gronk has been going well over his 31.5-yard prop recently. He’s also been finding the end zone much like he used to, with scores in four of his last five games. With the Rams blanketing the receivers in the red zone, I expect Gronk to have the best matchup, and we know he’s earned Brady’s trust back.
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